As we look ahead to 2023, there are numerous housing market predictions being made. The Canadian housing market is an area of great interest and anticipation for many individuals and investors. The housing market in Canada is expected to continue its upward trajectory. This is driven by various factors, such as population growth, low mortgage rates, and increased demand for housing. With a high search volume for terms like “Canada housing market predictions 2023,” it is evident that people are seeking insights into the market’s future trends and performance. While the future cannot be predicted with absolute certainty, the year 2023 holds promise for those interested in the Canadian housing market, with expectations of a vibrant and dynamic market. Whether you are a homebuyer, a real estate investor, or simply a curious learner, keeping an eye on the evolving trends of the Canadian housing market in 2023 is crucial.

Canada Housing Market Predictions 2023 Trends with Statistics

Canada Housing Market 2023 Trends with Statistics

According to the latest report from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the Canadian housing market is displaying positive trends and statistics for 2023. In February 2023, national home sales experienced a notable increase on a month-over-month basis. This indicates a recovery in the housing market, as sales continue to rise and the market tightens. As we move further into 2023, future sellers are expected to wait for the optimal time to list their properties and explore new buying opportunities, which typically aligns with the ongoing summer season. The combination of decreased new listings and rising demands suggests that the housing market may shift towards a seller’s market, wherein sellers have more leverage due to increased demand and limited supply.

These emerging trends and statistics reflect the ongoing strength and resilience of the Canadian housing market in 2023. With a higher search volume for keywords like “Canada housing market predictions 2023” and “housing market forecast 2023,” it is clear that individuals and investors are seeking insights into the market’s performance and projected trends. As the year progresses, monitoring these developments to make informed decisions within the dynamic Canadian housing market will be important.

Underlining Pointers of Canadian Housing 2023

The Canadian housing market report highlights several key points that provide insights into the current state of the market. 

    • In February 2023, national home sales experienced positive growth of 2.3% on a month-over-month basis, indicating a recovery in the market. However, when compared to February 2022, the actual monthly activity was 40% lower, reflecting a decline in sales volume.
    • Additionally, there was a decrease of 7.9% in the number of newly listed properties in February, indicating a potential tightening of the housing supply. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) also showed a slight decline of 1.1% on a month-over-month basis and a significant decrease of 15.8% on a year-over-year basis, indicating a downward trend in housing prices.
    • Moreover, the actual national average sale price in February 2023 experienced a significant year-over-year decline of 18.9%. These figures highlight the impact of market conditions on housing prices, emphasizing the need for careful analysis and consideration by buyers and sellers.

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Greater Vancouver stood out as regions with notable sales gains, contributing to the overall increase in home sales across Canada. The market is showing signs of recovery, and as spring approaches, there is anticipation for a more robust market, with homeowners preparing to list their properties and buyers actively seeking mortgage pre-approvals. These key points from the Canadian housing report provide valuable insights into the performance of the housing market in 2023. They offer a comprehensive view of sales activity, listing trends, price fluctuations, and regional variations, which can assist individuals and investors in making informed decisions within the dynamic and evolving Canadian housing market.

  • New Listings

In February, the Canadian housing market witnessed a 7.9% decrease in newly listed homes, especially in Ontario’s large markets. Potential sellers are likely waiting for the ideal time to list their properties and make new purchases, which typically aligns with the spring season. As new listings declined and sales continued to rise, the sales-to-new listings ratio reached 58.4%, the highest since April of the previous year. These trends contribute to the anticipation and predictions surrounding the 2023 housing market in Canada.

  • Inventory Home Prices

Inventory Home Prices in Canada

The Canadian housing market in February 2023 experienced a tightening as the national inventory decreased from 4.2 months in January to 4.1 months. This is a significant drop below the long-term average, indicating the potential for a seller’s market. The months of inventory are calculated by dividing the active listings by the number of sales, giving insights into the supply and demand dynamics. These trends contribute to the predictions and forecasts surrounding the 2023 housing market in Canada.

  • Home Prices

In February 2023, the Canadian housing market saw a smaller month-over-month drop in the Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) at 1.1%, compared to the previous month. This marks the smallest decline since last March. The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI currently sits at 15.8% below its peak level achieved in February 2022. Notably, Ontario and certain parts of British Columbia experienced larger price declines compared to the national average. However, in Calgary, Regina, Saskatoon, and St. John’s, home prices have remained relatively stable, with minimal deviations from their peak levels. These trends provide valuable insights of Canadian housing market predictions and forecasts in 2023

  • National Average Home Price

In February 2023, the actual national average home price in Canada was $662,437. While this reflects an 18.9% decrease from the all-time high in February 2022, it marked an increase of over $50,000 compared to January. The significant sales growth in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Greater Vancouver, two of the country’s most active and expensive housing markets, contributed to this upward trend. When these markets are excluded from the calculation, the national average price in February 2023 dropped by nearly $135,000. These insights contribute to predictions and forecasts for the 2023 Canadian housing market.

Speculation on Canada Housing Market

Speculation on Canada Housing Market 

The Canadian housing market has garnered significant attention recently, with concerns about a potential crash. Our predictions shed light on what is expected to unfold. The main question on everyone’s mind is when the market will hit its lowest point. According to RBC’s economic analysis, the bottom is projected to occur in Spring 2023. However, this does not signify the end of the housing correction. RBC forecasts a decline of 15% in home prices across the country from peak to trough, with approximately half of this decline still to come.

Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta are anticipated to experience dips of 19%, 16%, and 6%, respectively, from peak to trough. It’s important to note that this decline offsets only a portion of the substantial home price gains observed from late 2020 to February 2022. RBC emphasizes that the market’s dramatic swing since March 2022 is a cyclical event resulting from the transition out of highly unusual circumstances, namely the global pandemic and exceptionally low-interest rates. From a structural perspective, the market remains robust and sound.

These insights into the 2023 Canadian housing market demonstrate the expectation of further declines in home prices, with the market gradually stabilising. While challenges lie ahead, the underlying strength of the market is emphasized by RBC’s analysis.

Canada Housing Interest Rates Tends to Stablise

The Bank of Canada has paused its rate hiking cycle, and we do not anticipate any rate cuts until 2024. While this move should help stabilise the housing market, it may not be sufficient to boost it significantly. If longer-term bond yields experience a downward trend in the coming year, it will be seen as a positive indication of a potential turnaround. However, the interest rate environment is expected to remain restrictive for a considerable period. These insights contribute to Canada housing market predictions and forecasts for the 2023.

Future Holds Convenient Canadian Housing Prices

In the upcoming months, home prices in Canada are expected to decline further, with the national RPS HPI projected to drop by an additional 8% in the third quarter compared to fourth-quarter levels. The largest downside risks are observed in markets across B.C. and Ontario, with peak-to-trough price forecasts ranging from -19% in Ontario to -5% in Newfoundland and Labrador. Affordability challenges will persist for buyers, particularly in expensive markets like B.C. and Ontario. As a result, a swift market rebound is unlikely, and affordability issues will hinder significant relief from buyers’ budget constraints. These predictions reflect the outlook for the 2023 Canadian housing market, emphasising ongoing price declines and the persistent affordability challenges faced by buyers.

Solid Market Norms Comparison with the Correction

Despite the market correction since March 2022, the Canadian housing market maintains solid fundamentals. The correction was a cyclical event resulting from the unique circumstances of a global pandemic and historically low-interest rates. However, structurally, the market remains robust. Inventories are still at historically low levels, and the country’s population growth is experiencing a significant surge, which is the highest in generations. The continued influx of immigrants will sustain demand in the medium term and beyond. These factors contribute to the predictions and forecasts for the 2023 Canadian housing market, highlighting the market’s resilience and its potential for continued growth and stability.

Choosing House Construction for Long-Term Balance

The recent performance of the construction sector has been disappointing, and there is a pressing need to accelerate home building to meet the growing demand from households and address the housing affordability crisis in many Canadian cities. Our estimation indicates that a minimum of 270,000 units must be constructed annually by 2025. However, it remains uncertain whether the construction industry possesses the capacity to achieve this target, given the substantial shortages of labour. These observations contribute to the predictions and forecasts for the 2023 Canadian housing market, emphasising the urgency of addressing the housing shortage and the challenges posed by labour constraints in the construction sector.

Experts Predictions on Canadian Provincial Housing

Experts Predictions on Canadian Provincial Housing 

The Canadian housing market has undergone a correction in line with the aftermath of the pandemic. Although it has been a challenging year, there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon. Falling interest rates, a tight labour market, increased household savings, and heightened immigration are expected to help the market stabilise and reach its bottom by the end of the year. This resembles a phoenix rising from the ashes, ready to soar once again. According to a report by Desjardins’ economics team, the Canadian housing market has experienced a significant correction since its peak during the pandemic. Existing home sales have dropped by over 38% from their February 2022 high, and new listings have also decreased by almost 20% during the same period. The average home price has fallen by nearly 20%, while the benchmark home price, which adjusts for market composition, has decreased by around 14%.

The decline in sales, coupled with relatively stable listings, has moved the national housing market into more balanced territory compared to the previous year, which heavily favoured sellers. Looking ahead, experts predict that the Canadian housing market will reach its bottom by the year’s end. The recent shift in stance by the Bank of Canada indicates that they are likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the near future and may even consider rate cuts before the year concludes. However, the impact of high-interest rates on housing market activity remains a concern, and the full effects of previous rate hikes are yet to be fully felt in the economy. The correction in the Canadian housing market could potentially contribute to a recession in 2023, impacting Canadians. Despite these challenges, experts maintain an optimistic outlook, anticipating a recovery in the housing market over time.

End Thoughts

Canada’s housing market is heading towards recovery. Sales activity is expected to gradually decline in 2023, but it will rebound in the second half of the year and continue to strengthen in 2024. Lower borrowing costs and increased immigration will be key factors driving the market’s growth. Although each province may have its own distinct outlook, the overall housing market is poised for a promising comeback.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Will house prices go down in 2024 Canada?

The direction of house prices in 2024 Canada is uncertain and can be influenced by various factors such as economic conditions, government policies, and market dynamics. While predictions and forecasts can provide insights, they are subject to change based on evolving circumstances. It is advisable to consult reputable sources and experts to stay informed about the latest developments in the Canadian housing market.

What is the forecast for the Canadian housing market?

The forecast for the Canadian housing market is influenced by a range of factors and can vary depending on the specific region and market conditions. It is essential to consult reliable sources such as real estate associations, economic analysts, and housing market reports for the most up-to-date and accurate forecasts. These sources provide insights into market trends, supply and demand dynamics, interest rates, government policies, and other relevant factors that shape the forecast for the Canadian housing market.

What is the CMHC forecast for 2032?

As an AI language model, I don't have access to real-time data or the ability to browse the internet. The forecast provided by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) for 2032 may not be available as it pertains to a specific future year. It is recommended to visit the official CMHC website or refer to their publications and reports for any forecasts or insights they may have for the housing market in 2032 or beyond.

What is the average duplex house cost in Canada?

The average cost of a duplex house in Canada can vary significantly depending on factors such as location, size, condition, and local market conditions. Different provinces, cities, and neighbourhoods can have varying price ranges. It is best to consult real estate listings or engage with local real estate agents who have access to current market data and can provide specific information about the average cost of duplex houses in the desired area of interest.